B&r 3DO480.6 數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，2020-2022年全球新增鋰電銅箔供給過剩幅度分別為19.6%、5%和3.5%，行業(yè)供需平衡逐漸向好。
進(jìn)入2021年，鋰電銅箔價(jià)格漲勢不減。
3月3日，市場數(shù)據(jù)顯示，6μm銅箔和8μm銅箔均價(jià)分別漲至11.7萬元/噸、10.3萬元/噸，相較于1月初的9.9萬元/噸、8.3萬元/噸，分別上漲18%和24%。
行業(yè)人士指出，受下游新能源汽車以及5G基站等市場需求增長帶動(dòng)，目前國內(nèi)主流銅箔廠商處于滿產(chǎn)狀態(tài)，企業(yè)訂單飽滿，優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能尤其是薄片化6μm及以下的產(chǎn)品供不應(yīng)求。
國內(nèi)包括諾德股份、超華科技、嘉元科技、鑫鉑瑞、德福科技等，以及韓國SK Nexilis、日進(jìn)等企業(yè)均宣布擴(kuò)充銅箔產(chǎn)能。
從需求端看，新能源汽車動(dòng)力電池為鋰電池需求占比的細(xì)分領(lǐng)域，其次為3C數(shù)碼和儲能用鋰電池。
由此，數(shù)據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，2020-2022年全球鋰電銅箔需求量或分別達(dá)17.1、22.3、26.1萬噸，年復(fù)合增速約23%。
從供給端看，受制于關(guān)鍵設(shè)備生產(chǎn)周期長、工藝積累等因素，銅箔產(chǎn)能難以在短期內(nèi)突破，2021年鋰電銅箔供求關(guān)系偏緊。
據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2020年底全球鋰電銅箔總產(chǎn)能約40萬噸，2021和2022年底全球鋰電銅箔總產(chǎn)能將分別增至約49.3和56萬噸/年，年復(fù)合增速約為18%。
通過以上行業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)，可以作出以下供需預(yù)測：
一是，從增速來看，需求端增速大于供給端產(chǎn)能增速，這意味著當(dāng)前的供需缺口在短期內(nèi)將難以填補(bǔ)。
二是，從數(shù)量來看，2020-2022年全球鋰電銅箔新增產(chǎn)能分別為6.6、9和6.7萬噸/年，假若產(chǎn)能利用率為70%，由此測算2020-2022年全球新增鋰電銅箔供給過剩幅度分別為19.6%、5.0%和3.5%，行業(yè)供需平衡逐漸向好。
從產(chǎn)品趨勢看，相較8μm鋰電銅箔，6μm、4.5μm鋰電銅箔分別可提升鋰電池5%、9%的能量密度，因而預(yù)計(jì)4.5μm滲透率或?qū)⒊掷m(xù)提升。
諾德股份常務(wù)副總裁陳郁弼認(rèn)為，6μm已經(jīng)成為國內(nèi)動(dòng)力鋰電銅箔市場的主流產(chǎn)品。預(yù)計(jì)2020-2022年滲透率分別為60%、80%、90%。2020年，4.5um銅箔也開始進(jìn)入量產(chǎn)期。
如下圖，對2021年國內(nèi)4.5μm銅箔滲透率做10%、15%、20%、25%、30%的情景假設(shè)，在產(chǎn)能利用率70%時(shí)，表明2021年全球4.5μm銅箔市場供需格局將明顯好于6μm以上銅箔市場。
（2021年不同產(chǎn)能利用率下4.5μm和6μm以上銅箔的市場供需格局）
從競爭格局看，2020年底中國、韓國鋰電銅箔產(chǎn)能在全球合計(jì)占比高達(dá)87%，目前來看，2021-2022年新增產(chǎn)能也將主要來自中韓。
據(jù)測算，2020-2022年全球鋰電銅箔行業(yè)TOP4份額穩(wěn)定在30%左右，TOP8穩(wěn)定在48%左右，龍頭效應(yīng)顯著。行業(yè)的判斷是，銅箔新增產(chǎn)能將在2022年左右逐步得以釋放，行業(yè)或?qū)⒂瓉硇碌母偁幐窬帧?
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