1SAP140100R0100 PM581 移動電話用戶持續流失已經成為中國移動和中國聯通不得不重點解決的突出問題。在移動電話普及率早已超過113部/百人的情況下，即便運營商沒有大規模增長，也要全力確保存量用戶穩定。然而，在“斷卡”行動的直接催化下，去水份與保存量的雙重壓力必將進一步加劇存量競爭。
一、移動電話用戶增長出現明顯分化
雖然有2020年年初影響了用戶發展，但是這種影響也隨著疫情的基本穩定而逐漸削弱。公布的數據顯示，2020年年底移動電話用戶規模為15.94億戶，比2019年減少728萬戶。
三大基礎電信運營商公布的2020年月度經營報告數據顯示，中國移動和中國聯通移動電話用戶全年負增長的月份都超過了50%，與此形成鮮明對比的是，中國電信除了年初的負增長之外，全年均保持了正增長。
不管造成這種分化的原因是什么，非常明顯的趨勢就是受到“斷卡”行動影響之后，三大運營商的移動電話用戶都出現了增長走勢下滑苗頭。可以說，運營商長期以來解決不了水份問題，被“斷卡”行動解決了，至少有很大觸動。
二、存量爭奪戰越來越顯性化
如果說2020年的移動電話用戶負增長還不足以引起中國移動和中國聯通的高度重視，那么2021年1月份的數據則會進一步警示這兩家公司的高層管理者，特別是分管大眾市場的領導，因為2020年分化走勢有延續到2021年的趨勢。
如果僅僅從數據上看，中國移動和中國聯通流失的用戶規；九c中國電信凈增的用戶數量相當。不管這兩者是否具有確切的對等關系，我們認為在存量用戶凈增中，中國電信已經取得了優勢，或者延續了2020年以來的優勢。
雖然現在沒有明確的數據說明中國電信的移動電話用戶增長的來源，但是有公開消息曾稱中國電信已經在攜號轉網爭奪中取得了優勢。即便中國電信取得了攜號轉網優勢，但是攜轉用戶總量有限，支撐不了如此大量的用戶凈增。
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