McQuay 478123C-01-1
除了供需矛盾外，羅文也直言：“不排除存儲廠商惡意囤貨，等待時機(jī)成熟拋貨賺取利潤的情況。”
至于此輪漲價將會持續(xù)到何時，陳躍楠指出，需求強(qiáng)勁力道超出市場預(yù)期，而需求增長態(tài)勢預(yù)計將持續(xù)到2022年。而羅文則認(rèn)為，存儲的周期性特點(diǎn)決定了DRAM市場的不確定性，市場環(huán)境和大廠策略將決定DRAM價格的未來趨勢，還有待市場的進(jìn)一步觀察。
國產(chǎn)替代？
DRAM市場在迎來“漲價”這一挑戰(zhàn)的同時也蘊(yùn)藏著機(jī)會。ICInsights的報告顯示，2021年增長最快的產(chǎn)品領(lǐng)域就是存儲，其中DRAM更是拔得頭籌，預(yù)計銷售額增長18％。
由此可見，2021年是存儲“大年”，在國家大力倡導(dǎo)國產(chǎn)替代的背景下，本土廠商更是迎來了機(jī)遇。羅文表示本土廠商應(yīng)從三個方面入手打破存儲大廠的壟斷，一是技術(shù)的升級迭代；二是打造特色化產(chǎn)品；三是解決產(chǎn)能問題。
而對于存儲國產(chǎn)替代能否成功，陳躍楠則認(rèn)為，“未來的三到五年極其關(guān)鍵。隨著5G驅(qū)動下手機(jī)迎來換機(jī)周期并且單機(jī)搭載量提升，疊加考慮服務(wù)器需求高景氣以及下半年游戲機(jī)新產(chǎn)品帶來增量需求以及物聯(lián)網(wǎng)快速落地下大量的終端需求衍生，未來存儲行業(yè)需求容量增速有望提升。”
“國內(nèi)已有多家公司布局存儲器領(lǐng)域，并且積極對標(biāo)國外產(chǎn)品進(jìn)行技術(shù)研發(fā)，這些企業(yè)將利用好龐大的內(nèi)需市場，不斷優(yōu)化自身的開發(fā)能力，有機(jī)會在國外巨頭的‘高壓’下，讓‘中國芯’占有一席之地。”陳躍楠補(bǔ)充說道。
從本土存儲廠商的布局來看，長鑫存儲于2019年三季度成功量產(chǎn)19nm工藝的DDR4/LPDDR4X芯片，接下來，長鑫存儲規(guī)劃將推出17nmDDR5/LPDDR5等下一代內(nèi)存產(chǎn)品。集邦咨詢的預(yù)測稱，2020年四季度長鑫存儲的投片量將會達(dá)到4.5萬片/月，今年四季度將進(jìn)一步增長到8.5萬片/月。
2019年9月，ICPARK入園企業(yè)兆易創(chuàng)新發(fā)布公告稱公司擬募集資金總額不超過人民幣43.24億元，用于DRAM芯片自主研發(fā)及產(chǎn)業(yè)化項目及補(bǔ)充流動資金。項目開發(fā)目標(biāo)為研發(fā)1Xnm級（19nm、17nm）工藝制程下的DRAM技術(shù)，設(shè)計和開發(fā)DDR3、LPDDR3、DDR4、LPDDR4系列DRAM芯片。而就在前幾天，兆易創(chuàng)新預(yù)計上半年公有自研DRAM產(chǎn)品推出，其自研個產(chǎn)品會是DDR34Gb容量，面向利基市場。
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